Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.4¢
- Implied chance
- 4.4%
- Return if right
- 2172.7%
- Spread cost
- 17%
If you put in $100
You get 2272.7 shares at 4.4¢ each.
YES wins: $2272.73 back, a profit of $2172.73. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $429.98 of that profit. Without it you would make $2602.70.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.0¢
- Implied chance
- 97.0%
- Return if right
- 3.1%
- Spread cost
- 20%
If you put in $100
You get 103.1 shares at 97.0¢ each.
NO wins: $103.09 back, a profit of $3.09. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.75 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.84.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Argentina's poverty rate climbs to nearly one in three under MileiFrance 24 · 8h ago
- Argentina’s poverty rises to 32 percent under Milei with more pain forecastAl Jazeera · 10h ago
- ‘The Eternaut’ Star Ricardo Darín on Argentina’s Resilience: ‘We’re Like Peter Sellers in ‘The Party,’ the Bugler Who Never Dies’Variety · 1d ago
- Argentina’s Milei says UN ‘looking the other way’ on Falkland IslandsAl Jazeera · 2d ago
- Milei threatens at UN that Argentina will take ‘matters into our own hands’ on FalklandsThe Guardian · 2d ago
- Argentina’s Milei assails the U.N. as a ‘useless’ enabler of ‘fatally arrogant’ bureaucrats.The New York Times · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Javier Milei ceases to be the President of Argentina for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Javier Milei's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Argentina, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.