Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 10.0¢
- Implied chance
- 10.0%
- Return if right
- 900.0%
- Spread cost
- 11%
If you put in $100
You get 1000.0 shares at 10.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1000.00 back, a profit of $900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $111.11 of that profit. Without it you would make $1011.11.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 92.0¢
- Implied chance
- 92.0%
- Return if right
- 8.7%
- Spread cost
- 12%
If you put in $100
You get 108.7 shares at 92.0¢ each.
NO wins: $108.70 back, a profit of $8.70. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.19 of that profit. Without it you would make $9.89.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- OpenAI’s expensive smart speaker will use moving parts to seem “more alive”Ars Technica · 3d ago
- OpenAI's First Device Is a $300-Plus Doughnut-Shaped Speaker: ReportDecrypt · 3d ago
- Trump says he’d ‘probably get along’ with Jeffries as House speakerThe Washington Post · 3d ago
- Trump says he would 'probably' get along with Jeffries as SpeakerThe Hill · 3d ago
- EXCLUSIVE: Michigan House speaker calls for answers over $300M taxpayer-funded Rx Kids programFox News · 4d ago
- OpenAI’s new AI smart speaker will reportedly sell for between $300-$400TechCrunch · 4d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between December 4, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.