Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 65.0¢
- Implied chance
- 65.0%
- Return if right
- 53.8%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 153.8 shares at 65.0¢ each.
YES wins: $153.85 back, a profit of $53.85. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.19 of that profit. Without it you would make $55.04.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 36.0¢
- Implied chance
- 36.0%
- Return if right
- 177.8%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 277.8 shares at 36.0¢ each.
NO wins: $277.78 back, a profit of $177.78. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.91 of that profit. Without it you would make $181.69.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 03:13 AM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- ‘Watermelons’: Zack Polanski and the rise of the ‘green outside, red inside’ eco-populistsThe Guardian · 14h ago
- Watermelon Pictures Acquires ‘Thirteen in Gaza’ Out of TIFF (Exclusive)The Hollywood Reporter · 7d ago
- Dev Benegal’s Judith Blum Reddy Doc ‘Everything Is Not OK’ Acquired by Watermelon Pictures, Annemarie Jacir Aboard as EP (EXCLUSIVE)Variety · 18d ago
- NASCAR WAG holds on for dear life with her watermelon farmer boyfriend, Kirk's dog is back & Al vs Trump!Fox News · 26d ago
- Watermelon Pictures Acquires Diego Luna’s Migration Drama ‘Ashes’ (EXCLUSIVE)Variety · 1mo ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon." This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.