Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by September 30?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 2.1¢
- Implied chance
- 2.1%
- Return if right
- 4661.9%
- Spread cost
- 27%
If you put in $100
You get 4761.9 shares at 2.1¢ each.
YES wins: $4761.90 back, a profit of $4661.90. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1689.71 of that profit. Without it you would make $6351.61.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.0¢
- Implied chance
- 99.0%
- Return if right
- 1.0%
- Spread cost
- 36%
If you put in $100
You get 101.0 shares at 99.0¢ each.
NO wins: $101.01 back, a profit of $1.01. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.56 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.57.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersHeadlines are matched on the names in “Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by September 30?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.