Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 22.0¢
- Implied chance
- 22.0%
- Return if right
- 354.5%
- Spread cost
- 11%
If you put in $100
You get 454.5 shares at 22.0¢ each.
YES wins: $454.55 back, a profit of $354.55. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $45.45 of that profit. Without it you would make $400.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 82.0¢
- Implied chance
- 82.0%
- Return if right
- 22.0%
- Spread cost
- 12%
If you put in $100
You get 122.0 shares at 82.0¢ each.
NO wins: $121.95 back, a profit of $21.95. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $25.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
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- Mamdani socialism and Trump socialism — reject them bothThe Hill · 3d ago
- NYC business owners revolt over Mamdani’s government-run grocery stores: ‘Doomed for disaster'Fox News · 4d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Zohran Mamdani has proposed creating city owned grocery stores to combat rising prices (see: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/12/nyregion/grocery-stores-city-owned.html). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the City of New York during the Mamdani administration implements a policy under which at least one grocery store that is city-owned and operated is actively open to the public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The policy will be considered to have been implemented if at least one such store is open for regular grocery retail sales to the public by the resolution date. The enactment or announcement of a policy without an operational, open store will not alone qualify. Policies that are blocked, cancelled, or not yet in effect by the resolution date will similarly not qualify. Limited pilots, studies, planning initiatives, or temporary pop-up markets which don’t regularly operate as regular grocery stores do not qualify. Partnerships which include partial city ownership will qualify as long as the store is substantively under City of New York control. Partnerships with non-profit or other operators which don’t include direct city ownership of the store will not qualify. Only stores that are initiated, approved, or opened during Zohran Mamdani’s mayoralty and that are described in credible reporting or official City communications as part of the “city-owned grocery store” initiative associated with his campaign platform will qualify. Grocery stores created by previous or subsequent administrations, or any other government-run or subsidized retail programs that are not reasonably attributable to the Mamdani administration’s city-owned grocery store policy, will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.