Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 27.2¢
- Implied chance
- 27.2%
- Return if right
- 267.6%
- Spread cost
- 48%
If you put in $100
You get 367.6 shares at 27.2¢ each.
YES wins: $367.65 back, a profit of $267.65. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $247.74 of that profit. Without it you would make $515.38.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 94.7¢
- Implied chance
- 94.7%
- Return if right
- 5.6%
- Spread cost
- 71%
If you put in $100
You get 105.6 shares at 94.7¢ each.
NO wins: $105.60 back, a profit of $5.60. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $13.81 of that profit. Without it you would make $19.40.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus. Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.