Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 86.0¢
- Implied chance
- 86.0%
- Return if right
- 16.3%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 116.3 shares at 86.0¢ each.
YES wins: $116.28 back, a profit of $16.28. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.37 of that profit. Without it you would make $17.65.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 16.0¢
- Implied chance
- 16.0%
- Return if right
- 525.0%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 625.0 shares at 16.0¢ each.
NO wins: $625.00 back, a profit of $525.00. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $41.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $566.67.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- ‘Another coup d’état’: fears grow as Flávio Bolsonaro vows to ‘re-democratise’ BrazilThe Guardian · 11h ago
- Flávio Bolsonaro’s advance in Brazil’s election is grim jolt for climate campaignersThe Guardian · 13h ago
- Brazil Market Euphoria Hinges on Fixes Flávio Bolsonaro Is Yet to Lay OutBloomberg · 1d ago
- Flávio Bolsonaro rides right-wing wave to win first round of Brazil electionBBC News · 2d ago
- Far right on the march and Lula’s failures: key drivers of Flávio Bolsonaro’s Brazil surgeThe Guardian · 2d ago
- Flávio Bolsonaro poised to win Brazilian presidency after shock first-round victoryThe Guardian · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) and Flávio Bolsonaro participate in the same televised Brazilian presidential debate by October 24, 2026, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro must each speak at least once in the same debate, televised live. Virtual live participation will qualify. Prerecorded appearances will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be footage of the debate, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.