Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.0¢
- Implied chance
- 3.0%
- Return if right
- 3233.3%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 3333.3 shares at 3.0¢ each.
YES wins: $3333.33 back, a profit of $3233.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $56.50 of that profit. Without it you would make $3289.83.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.1¢
- Implied chance
- 97.1%
- Return if right
- 3.0%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 103.0 shares at 97.1¢ each.
NO wins: $102.99 back, a profit of $2.99. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.04.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Marc Jacobs says he'd dress Luigi Mangione at trial in podcast interview with fashion designerFox News · 1d ago
- Judge delays Luigi Mangione’s state murder trial after double jeopardy claimNBC News · 4d ago
- Luigi Mangione's New York murder trial adjourned until December over double jeopardy concernsFox News · 4d ago
- Luigi Mangione's state murder trial adjournedABC News · 4d ago
- Luigi Mangione's New York trial delayedCBS News · 4d ago
- Ilhan Omar staffer shredded for downplaying healthcare CEO’s killing after Luigi Mangione guilty pleaFox News · 5d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.