Lecornu out as French PM by October 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 15.0¢
- Implied chance
- 15.0%
- Return if right
- 566.7%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 666.7 shares at 15.0¢ each.
YES wins: $666.67 back, a profit of $566.67. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $22.99 of that profit. Without it you would make $589.66.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 86.0¢
- Implied chance
- 86.0%
- Return if right
- 16.3%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 116.3 shares at 86.0¢ each.
NO wins: $116.28 back, a profit of $16.28. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.68 of that profit. Without it you would make $16.96.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 7, 01:42 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- French PM rejects police brutality claims after teens severely injured in protests: 'Accidents happen'Fox News · 12h ago
- 🔴 Live: French PM denies 'police repression', suspends classes as clashes erupt at student protestsFrance 24 · 2d ago
- French PM presents belt-tightening 2027 budget, including frozen wages and new taxesFrance 24 · 6d ago
- French PM warns against escalation of school protests after 164 arrestedBBC News · 9d ago
- French PM vows to cut public spending by €54 billion to reduce deficitFrance 24 · 19d ago
- French PM looks to speed up cyclone reconstruction on Mayotte visitFrance 24 · 1mo ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Lecornu out as French PM by October 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.