Le Pen ankle monitor before French Presidential Election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 11.0¢
- Implied chance
- 11.0%
- Return if right
- 809.1%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 909.1 shares at 11.0¢ each.
YES wins: $909.09 back, a profit of $809.09. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $43.29 of that profit. Without it you would make $852.38.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 90.0¢
- Implied chance
- 90.0%
- Return if right
- 11.1%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 111.1 shares at 90.0¢ each.
NO wins: $111.11 back, a profit of $11.11. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.62 of that profit. Without it you would make $11.73.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Far-right politician Éric Zemmour joins 2027 French presidential raceFrance 24 · 7d ago
- Poll puts France's Le Pen in lead as presidential campaign kicks offFrance 24 · 10d ago
- France's far-right Marine Le Pen kicks off 2027 presidential campaignFrance 24 · 11d ago
- RN 'breach': Amid 'severe' differences with 'bright, young' Bardella, Le Pen 'dictates party line'France 24 · 14d ago
- RN 'breach': Amid 'severe' differences with 'bright, young' Bardella, Le Pen 'dictates party line'France 24 · 14d ago
- Marine Le Pen's National Rally plans to "sanction" the wearing of the veil with a fineFrance 24 · 24d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Le Pen ankle monitor before French Presidential Election?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marine Le Pen wears a court-ordered or legally imposed electronic monitoring device at any time between market creation and April 17, 2027, at 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve solely based on whether Marine Le Pen actually wears a court-ordered or legally imposed electronic monitoring device during the specified time frame, regardless of any pending or future appeal, outstanding sentence, change to her candidacy or eligibility status, or other legal proceeding or formality. Fitness monitoring devices, smartwatches, or other similar consumer-grade wearable technology will not qualify. A brief fitting, test, demonstration, or other non-compulsory use of an electronic monitoring device will not qualify unless Le Pen wears the device as part of an active electronic monitoring measure imposed by a court or other competent legal authority. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.