Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.7¢
- Implied chance
- 3.7%
- Return if right
- 2602.7%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 2702.7 shares at 3.7¢ each.
YES wins: $2702.70 back, a profit of $2602.70. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $75.08 of that profit. Without it you would make $2677.78.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.5¢
- Implied chance
- 96.5%
- Return if right
- 3.6%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 103.6 shares at 96.5¢ each.
NO wins: $103.63 back, a profit of $3.63. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.11 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.73.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Taiwan: Home of semiconductor giants at the centre of AI raceFrance 24 · 7h ago
- AI and Taiwan: What to expect from Trump's meeting with China's Xi JinpingCBS News · 7h ago
- First Thing: Trump welcomes Xi to Washington amid tensions over trade, AI and TaiwanThe Guardian · 8h ago
- Trump-Xi summit live: Trade, AI, Iran and Taiwan top US-China talksAl Jazeera · 8h ago
- Rep. John Moolenaar says U.S. has "responsibility to help Taiwan defend itself" before Xi visitCBS News · 22h ago
- Rubio: Taiwan arms sales constrained by US needs, industrial baseThe Hill · 1d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lai Ching-te and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.