LA Mayoral Election: Court Rules 1st Round Fraudulent?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 19.2¢
- Implied chance
- 19.2%
- Return if right
- 420.8%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 520.8 shares at 19.2¢ each.
YES wins: $520.83 back, a profit of $420.83. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $11.08 of that profit. Without it you would make $431.91.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 81.6¢
- Implied chance
- 81.6%
- Return if right
- 22.5%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 122.5 shares at 81.6¢ each.
NO wins: $122.55 back, a profit of $22.55. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.60 of that profit. Without it you would make $23.15.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Search warrants for former prince Andrew's homes were unlawful, UK court rulesFrance 24 · 20h ago
- Search warrants used in Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor raids were unlawful, court rulesThe Guardian · 21h ago
- Australia top court rules against coal mine expansion, citing climate harmAl Jazeera · 2d ago
- 'DSA jihadi': LA mayoral candidate torched after defending 'genocide' comment during Jewish forumFox News · 7d ago
- Israeli court ruling a ‘new threshold’ in Palestinian suppressionAl Jazeera · 7d ago
- LA mayoral hopeful stumbles through favorite rappers from the city, host calls her 'media trained'Fox News · 8d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “LA Mayoral Election: Court Rules 1st Round Fraudulent?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any court in the United States issues a ruling that widespread fraud, fraudulent conduct, or illegal manipulation of votes occurred during the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ruling is defined as any written order, judgement, opinion, or decision, including per curiam opinions, summary orders and sua sponte rulings issued by a relevant court. Unwritten oral rulings, tentative rulings, settlements, orders to show cause, or other procedures which do not constitute a finalized ruling will not count. A qualifying ruling of fraud must find that widespread, intentional voter fraud or vote-manipulation occurred during the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election. Procedural irregularities, administrative errors, or isolated rulings on individual cases of voter fraud will not count. The primary resolution source will be official information from the relevant court; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.