Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.0¢
- Implied chance
- 4.0%
- Return if right
- 2400.0%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 2500.0 shares at 4.0¢ each.
YES wins: $2500.00 back, a profit of $2400.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $31.65 of that profit. Without it you would make $2431.65.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.1¢
- Implied chance
- 96.1%
- Return if right
- 4.1%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 104.1 shares at 96.1¢ each.
NO wins: $104.06 back, a profit of $4.06. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.11.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Senate Republican: Iranian leaders 'part of a colony of reptiles' that also includes China, Russia, North KoreaThe Hill · 7h ago
- North Korea's Fake Job Interviews Drained $11M From 7,000 Crypto WalletsDecrypt · 1d ago
- South Korea’s leader is seeking a new approach to North Korea.The New York Times · 2d ago
- South Korean president says Trump should ease sanctions on North KoreaThe Hill · 2d ago
- North Korea's Kim lauds test of apparent new hypersonic missileCBS News · 2d ago
- North Korea touts new weapons system described as hypersonicABC News · 3d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.