Kazakhstan Kurultai Election: Adilet Wins Majority?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 98.0¢
- Implied chance
- 98.0%
- Return if right
- 2.0%
- Spread cost
- 37%
If you put in $100
You get 102.0 shares at 98.0¢ each.
YES wins: $102.04 back, a profit of $2.04. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.21 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.25.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 4.3¢
- Implied chance
- 4.3%
- Return if right
- 2225.6%
- Spread cost
- 28%
If you put in $100
You get 2325.6 shares at 4.3¢ each.
NO wins: $2325.58 back, a profit of $2225.58. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $849.02 of that profit. Without it you would make $3074.60.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Kazakhstan Kurultai Election: Adilet Wins Majority?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Parliamentary elections to elect the Kurultai of Kazakhstan are scheduled to take place on August 23, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Adilet party wins at least 73 seats in the Kurultai as a result of the 2026 Kazakh legislative elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of this election aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Kazakh government.