Kash Patel out by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 20.0¢
- Implied chance
- 20.0%
- Return if right
- 400.0%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 500.0 shares at 20.0¢ each.
YES wins: $500.00 back, a profit of $400.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $26.32 of that profit. Without it you would make $426.32.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 82.0¢
- Implied chance
- 82.0%
- Return if right
- 22.0%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 122.0 shares at 82.0¢ each.
NO wins: $121.95 back, a profit of $21.95. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.51 of that profit. Without it you would make $23.46.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 22, 11:44 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Moment Kash Patel’s senate hearing takes bizarre turnAl Jazeera · 9d ago
- Key moments from FBI Director Kash Patel's Senate hearingCBS News · 9d ago
- Kash Patel defends FBI’s new policy on bestiality at Senate hearingNBC News · 9d ago
- Key details, moments from Kash Patel's Senate hearingCBS News · 9d ago
- FBI Director Kash Patel clashes with Democrats at oversight hearingNBC News · 9d ago
- Kash Patel Suggests FBI Agents Could Go to Election Polling SitesThe New York Times · 9d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Kash Patel out by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.