Kanye West arrested in Russia by October 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 8.0¢
- Implied chance
- 8.0%
- Return if right
- 1150.0%
- Spread cost
- 33%
If you put in $100
You get 1250.0 shares at 8.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1250.00 back, a profit of $1150.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $568.18 of that profit. Without it you would make $1718.18.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.0¢
- Implied chance
- 97.0%
- Return if right
- 3.1%
- Spread cost
- 47%
If you put in $100
You get 103.1 shares at 97.0¢ each.
NO wins: $103.09 back, a profit of $3.09. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.73 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.82.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- US ally on Putin’s doorstep braces for war as Russia tensions take ominous turnFox News · 4h ago
- Ukraine's former defense minister demands elections: "Democracy cannot be held hostage by Russia"CBS News · 6h ago
- RFK Jr.’s Son Conor Kennedy Put on Russia’s Most Wanted ListThe Hollywood Reporter · 8h ago
- Ukraine's fired defense minister calls for elections despite war with RussiaCBS News · 13h ago
- Swiss to Reject Stricter Neutrality in Vote Russia Wants to SwayBloomberg · 17h ago
- Ukraine launches nearly 800 drones into Russia, targets MoscowCBS News · 20h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Kanye West arrested in Russia by October 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ye, formerly known as Kanye West, is arrested in Russia between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest occurs when Ye is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in Russia, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true: (i) Ye is criminally booked or processed; (ii) Ye is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) Ye is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) Ye is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center. The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Ye being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds. Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.