Kansas passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 96.0¢
- Implied chance
- 96.0%
- Return if right
- 4.2%
- Spread cost
- 40%
If you put in $100
You get 104.2 shares at 96.0¢ each.
YES wins: $104.17 back, a profit of $4.17. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.79 of that profit. Without it you would make $6.95.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 9.0¢
- Implied chance
- 9.0%
- Return if right
- 1011.1%
- Spread cost
- 30%
If you put in $100
You get 1111.1 shares at 9.0¢ each.
NO wins: $1111.11 back, a profit of $1011.11. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $427.35 of that profit. Without it you would make $1438.46.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Klint Kubiak predicted a Raiders win over Kansas City at halftime, then the Chiefs let the scoreboard speakFox News · 3h ago
- How Kansas Suddenly Became a Battleground State for Senate ControlThe New York Times · 10h ago
- Senate GOP group pours millions into defending Kansas seatCBS News · 2d ago
- Kansas Democratic Senate nominee says 'please, no' to Harris campaigning for himThe Hill · 2d ago
- Kansas enters the chat as Senate map tilts further into red territoryPolitico · 2d ago
- Another former GOP governor backs Hamilton over Marshall for Kansas SenateThe Hill · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Kansas passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The Kansas Citizenship Voting Requirement Amendment (HCR 5004) is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Kansas in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would amend the Kansas Constitution to provide that only a citizen of the United States is eligible to vote in elections in Kansas. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Kansas statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Kansas, including the Kansas Secretary of State (https://sos.ks.gov/).