Jimmy Lai released by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 5.1¢
- Implied chance
- 5.1%
- Return if right
- 1860.8%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 1960.8 shares at 5.1¢ each.
YES wins: $1960.78 back, a profit of $1860.78. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $19.41 of that profit. Without it you would make $1880.20.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 95.0¢
- Implied chance
- 95.0%
- Return if right
- 5.3%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 105.3 shares at 95.0¢ each.
NO wins: $105.26 back, a profit of $5.26. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.06 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.32.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
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How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count. Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.