ITF M15 Malmö Men: Matas Vasiliauskas vs Alejandro Arcila

Q: ITF M15 Malmö Men: Matas Vasiliauskas vs Alejandro Arcila

Prediction markets currently price this at 31%. A YES share costs 31.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 222.6% over 7d.

ITF M15 Malmö Men: Matas Vasiliauskas vs Alejandro Arcila$5k liquidity$26 volumecloses 7d

TennisSportsGames

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 31.0¢
Implied chance: 31.0%
Return if right: 222.6%
Spread cost: 5%

If you put in $100

You get 322.6 shares at 31.0¢ each.

YES wins: $322.58 back, a profit of $222.58. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $10.75 of that profit. Without it you would make $233.33.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 71.0¢
Implied chance: 71.0%
Return if right: 40.8%
Spread cost: 5%

If you put in $100

You get 140.8 shares at 71.0¢ each.

NO wins: $140.85 back, a profit of $40.85. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.01 of that profit. Without it you would make $42.86.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 11, 07:24 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “ITF M15 Malmö Men: Matas Vasiliauskas vs Alejandro Arcila”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Matas Vasiliauskas and Alejandro Arcila in the ITF M15 Malmö Men, originally scheduled for August 11, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matas Vasiliauskas' if Matas Vasiliauskas advances against Alejandro Arcila. This market will resolve to 'Alejandro Arcila' if Alejandro Arcila advances against Matas Vasiliauskas. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/