Set 1 Winner: Soderqvist vs Vinciguerra

Q: Set 1 Winner: Soderqvist vs Vinciguerra

Prediction markets currently price this at 34%. A YES share costs 34.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 194.1% over 7d.

ITF M15 Malmö Men: Filip Soderqvist vs William Rejchtman Vinciguerra$1k liquidity$0 volumecloses 7d

TennisSportsGames

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 34.0¢
Implied chance: 34.0%
Return if right: 194.1%
Spread cost: 7%

If you put in $100

You get 294.1 shares at 34.0¢ each.

YES wins: $294.12 back, a profit of $194.12. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $13.57 of that profit. Without it you would make $207.69.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 69.0¢
Implied chance: 69.0%
Return if right: 44.9%
Spread cost: 7%

If you put in $100

You get 144.9 shares at 69.0¢ each.

NO wins: $144.93 back, a profit of $44.93. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.22 of that profit. Without it you would make $48.15.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 12, 06:37 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Set 1 Winner: Soderqvist vs Vinciguerra”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Filip Soderqvist and William Rejchtman Vinciguerra in the ITF M15 Malmö Men, originally scheduled for August 12, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Soderqvist” if Filip Soderqvist wins the first set. It will resolve to “Vinciguerra” if William Rejchtman Vinciguerra wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ITF match statistics.

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/