M25 Casablanca: Yassine Smiej vs Yaroslav Demin

Q: M25 Casablanca: Yassine Smiej vs Yaroslav Demin

Prediction markets currently price this at 25%. A YES share costs 25.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 300.0% over 8d.

M25 Casablanca: Yassine Smiej vs Yaroslav Demin$6k liquidity$22k volumecloses 8d

TennisSportsGames

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 25.0¢
Implied chance: 25.0%
Return if right: 300.0%
Spread cost: 5%

If you put in $100

You get 400.0 shares at 25.0¢ each.

YES wins: $400.00 back, a profit of $300.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $16.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $316.67.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 77.0¢
Implied chance: 77.0%
Return if right: 29.9%
Spread cost: 5%

If you put in $100

You get 129.9 shares at 77.0¢ each.

NO wins: $129.87 back, a profit of $29.87. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.71 of that profit. Without it you would make $31.58.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 1, 10:21 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “M25 Casablanca: Yassine Smiej vs Yaroslav Demin”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Yassine Smiej and Yaroslav Demin in the M25 Casablanca, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Yassine Smiej' if Yassine Smiej advances against Yaroslav Demin. This market will resolve to 'Yaroslav Demin' if Yaroslav Demin advances against Yassine Smiej. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/