Set Handicap: Scaglia (-1.5) vs Ponte (+1.5)

Q: Set Handicap: Scaglia (-1.5) vs Ponte (+1.5)

Prediction markets currently price this at 65%. A YES share costs 65.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 53.8% over 7d.

ITF M25 Idanha-a-Nova Men: Mathieu Scaglia vs Ander Tarrio Ponte$2k liquidity$0 volumecloses 7d

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 65.0¢
Implied chance: 65.0%
Return if right: 53.8%
Spread cost: 10%

If you put in $100

You get 153.8 shares at 65.0¢ each.

YES wins: $153.85 back, a profit of $53.85. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $6.15 of that profit. Without it you would make $60.00.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 40.0¢
Implied chance: 40.0%
Return if right: 150.0%
Spread cost: 10%

If you put in $100

You get 250.0 shares at 40.0¢ each.

NO wins: $250.00 back, a profit of $150.00. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $16.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $166.67.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 11, 11:43 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Mathieu Scaglia and Ander Tarrio Ponte in the ITF M25 Idanha-a-Nova Men, originally scheduled for August 11, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Scaglia" if Mathieu Scaglia wins by 2 or more sets than Ander Tarrio Ponte, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Ponte." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ITF results.

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/