Set Handicap: Luciano (-1.5) vs Sanchez (+1.5)

Q: Set Handicap: Luciano (-1.5) vs Sanchez (+1.5)

Prediction markets currently price this at 37%. A YES share costs 37.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 170.3% over 7d.

ITF W15 Bucharest 3 Women: Maria Oliver Sanchez vs Lavinia Luciano$2k liquidity$0 volumecloses 7d

TennisSportsGames

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 37.0¢
Implied chance: 37.0%
Return if right: 170.3%
Spread cost: 8%

If you put in $100

You get 270.3 shares at 37.0¢ each.

YES wins: $270.27 back, a profit of $170.27. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $15.44 of that profit. Without it you would make $185.71.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 67.0¢
Implied chance: 67.0%
Return if right: 49.3%
Spread cost: 9%

If you put in $100

You get 149.3 shares at 67.0¢ each.

NO wins: $149.25 back, a profit of $49.25. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.59 of that profit. Without it you would make $53.85.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 12, 01:26 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Spanish PM Sanchez faces criticism as EU meets over Ceuta crossingsAl Jazeera · 8d ago

Headlines are matched on the names in “Set Handicap: Luciano (-1.5) vs Sanchez (+1.5)”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Lavinia Luciano and Maria Oliver Sanchez in the ITF W15 Bucharest 3 Women, originally scheduled for August 12, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Luciano" if Lavinia Luciano wins by 2 or more sets than Maria Oliver Sanchez, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Sanchez." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ITF results.

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/