Set 1 Winner: Pieleanu vs Murray

Q: Set 1 Winner: Pieleanu vs Murray

Prediction markets currently price this at 73%. A YES share costs 73.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 37.0% over 2d.

ITF Curtea de Arges: Rares Teodor Pieleanu vs Freddy Murray$884 liquidity$5 volumecloses 2d

TennisSportsGames

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 73.0¢
Implied chance: 73.0%
Return if right: 37.0%
Spread cost: 12%

If you put in $100

You get 137.0 shares at 73.0¢ each.

YES wins: $136.99 back, a profit of $36.99. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.86 of that profit. Without it you would make $41.84.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 32.0¢
Implied chance: 32.0%
Return if right: 212.5%
Spread cost: 11%

If you put in $100

You get 312.5 shares at 32.0¢ each.

NO wins: $312.50 back, a profit of $212.50. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $26.48 of that profit. Without it you would make $238.98.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 5, 09:00 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Suspected mass bird flu deaths found in second state as Murray Watt warns ‘this is the beginning’The Guardian · 7d ago

Headlines are matched on the names in “Set 1 Winner: Pieleanu vs Murray”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Rares Teodor Pieleanu and Freddy Murray in the ITF Curtea de Arges, originally scheduled for August 5, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Pieleanu” if Rares Teodor Pieleanu wins the first set. It will resolve to “Murray” if Freddy Murray wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ITF match statistics.

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/