Set Handicap: Alvarez (-1.5) vs Paolini (+1.5)

Q: Set Handicap: Alvarez (-1.5) vs Paolini (+1.5)

Prediction markets currently price this at 40%. A YES share costs 40.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 150.0% over 7d.

ITF M15 Targu Jiu Men: Andrea Paolini vs Alejandro Turriziani Alvarez$1k liquidity$0 volumecloses 7d

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 40.0¢
Implied chance: 40.0%
Return if right: 150.0%
Spread cost: 8%

If you put in $100

You get 250.0 shares at 40.0¢ each.

YES wins: $250.00 back, a profit of $150.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $13.16 of that profit. Without it you would make $163.16.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 64.0¢
Implied chance: 64.0%
Return if right: 56.3%
Spread cost: 8%

If you put in $100

You get 156.3 shares at 64.0¢ each.

NO wins: $156.25 back, a profit of $56.25. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5.04 of that profit. Without it you would make $61.29.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 13, 05:41 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Set Handicap: Alvarez (-1.5) vs Paolini (+1.5)”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Alejandro Turriziani Alvarez and Andrea Paolini in the ITF M15 Targu Jiu Men, originally scheduled for August 13, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Alvarez" if Alejandro Turriziani Alvarez wins by 2 or more sets than Andrea Paolini, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Paolini." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ITF results.

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/