Set Handicap: Mortensen (-1.5) vs Kinoshita (+1.5)

Q: Set Handicap: Mortensen (-1.5) vs Kinoshita (+1.5)

Prediction markets currently price this at 17%. A YES share costs 17.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 488.2% over 7d.

W50 Leiria: Rebecca Munk Mortensen vs Hayu Kinoshita$755 liquidity$0 volumecloses 7d

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 17.0¢
Implied chance: 17.0%
Return if right: 488.2%
Spread cost: 17%

If you put in $100

You get 588.2 shares at 17.0¢ each.

YES wins: $588.24 back, a profit of $488.24. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $101.42 of that profit. Without it you would make $589.66.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 88.0¢
Implied chance: 88.0%
Return if right: 13.6%
Spread cost: 20%

If you put in $100

You get 113.6 shares at 88.0¢ each.

NO wins: $113.64 back, a profit of $13.64. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.32 of that profit. Without it you would make $16.96.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 1, 10:25 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Set Handicap: Mortensen (-1.5) vs Kinoshita (+1.5)”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Rebecca Munk Mortensen and Hayu Kinoshita in the W50 Leiria, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Mortensen" if Rebecca Munk Mortensen wins by 2 or more sets than Hayu Kinoshita, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Kinoshita." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Rebecca Munk Mortensen can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Kinoshita." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ITF results.

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/