Set 1 Winner: Michalski vs Mashtakov

Q: Set 1 Winner: Michalski vs Mashtakov

Prediction markets currently price this at 77%. A YES share costs 77.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 29.9% over 7d.

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Poznan (Poland), clay: Daniel Michalski vs Nikita Mashtakov$938 liquidity$0 volumecloses 7d

TennisSportsGames

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 77.0¢
Implied chance: 77.0%
Return if right: 29.9%
Spread cost: 13%

If you put in $100

You get 129.9 shares at 77.0¢ each.

YES wins: $129.87 back, a profit of $29.87. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.36 of that profit. Without it you would make $34.23.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 28.0¢
Implied chance: 28.0%
Return if right: 257.1%
Spread cost: 12%

If you put in $100

You get 357.1 shares at 28.0¢ each.

NO wins: $357.14 back, a profit of $257.14. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $35.01 of that profit. Without it you would make $292.16.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 29, 03:27 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

No recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.

Headlines are matched on the names in “Set 1 Winner: Michalski vs Mashtakov”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Michalski and Nikita Mashtakov in the ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Poznan (Poland), clay, originally scheduled for August 29, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Michalski” if Daniel Michalski wins the first set. It will resolve to “Mashtakov” if Nikita Mashtakov wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by September 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ITF match statistics.

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/