Set 1 Winner: Maute vs Mueller

Q: Set 1 Winner: Maute vs Mueller

Prediction markets currently price this at 45%. A YES share costs 45.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 122.2% over 7d.

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Allershausen (Germany), clay: Jannik Maute vs Calvin Mueller$2k liquidity$0 volumecloses 7d

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 45.0¢
Implied chance: 45.0%
Return if right: 122.2%
Spread cost: 10%

If you put in $100

You get 222.2 shares at 45.0¢ each.

YES wins: $222.22 back, a profit of $122.22. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $13.07 of that profit. Without it you would make $135.29.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 60.0¢
Implied chance: 60.0%
Return if right: 66.7%
Spread cost: 10%

If you put in $100

You get 166.7 shares at 60.0¢ each.

NO wins: $166.67 back, a profit of $66.67. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $7.25 of that profit. Without it you would make $73.91.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 30, 12:34 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Set 1 Winner: Maute vs Mueller”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Jannik Maute and Calvin Mueller in the ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Allershausen (Germany), clay, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Maute” if Jannik Maute wins the first set. It will resolve to “Mueller” if Calvin Mueller wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ITF match statistics.

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/