Set Handicap: Fernandez (-1.5) vs Butulija (+1.5)

Q: Set Handicap: Fernandez (-1.5) vs Butulija (+1.5)

Prediction markets currently price this at 52%. A YES share costs 52.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 92.3% over 7d.

ITF M15 Kursumlijska Banja 13 Men: Mario Arce Fernandez vs Boris Butulija$1k liquidity$0 volumecloses 7d

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 52.0¢
Implied chance: 52.0%
Return if right: 92.3%
Spread cost: 13%

If you put in $100

You get 192.3 shares at 52.0¢ each.

YES wins: $192.31 back, a profit of $92.31. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $13.88 of that profit. Without it you would make $106.19.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 55.0¢
Implied chance: 55.0%
Return if right: 81.8%
Spread cost: 13%

If you put in $100

You get 181.8 shares at 55.0¢ each.

NO wins: $181.82 back, a profit of $81.82. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $12.36 of that profit. Without it you would make $94.17.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 26, 04:17 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Boris Butulija in the ITF M15 Kursumlijska Banja 13 Men, originally scheduled for August 26, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Fernandez" if Mario Arce Fernandez wins by 2 or more sets than Boris Butulija, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Butulija." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by September 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ITF results.

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/