Set Handicap: Lagutin (-1.5) vs Marques (+1.5)

Q: Set Handicap: Lagutin (-1.5) vs Marques (+1.5)

Prediction markets currently price this at 53%. A YES share costs 53.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 88.7% over 7d.

ITF M25 Idanha-a-Nova 2 Men: Pavel Lagutin vs Goncalo Marques$2k liquidity$0 volumecloses 7d

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 53.0¢
Implied chance: 53.0%
Return if right: 88.7%
Spread cost: 8%

If you put in $100

You get 188.7 shares at 53.0¢ each.

YES wins: $188.68 back, a profit of $88.68. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $7.40 of that profit. Without it you would make $96.08.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 51.0¢
Implied chance: 51.0%
Return if right: 96.1%
Spread cost: 8%

If you put in $100

You get 196.1 shares at 51.0¢ each.

NO wins: $196.08 back, a profit of $96.08. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $8.00 of that profit. Without it you would make $104.08.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 23, 05:21 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Figures to face off against Marques for GOP-redistricted Alabama House seatThe Hill · 11d ago

Headlines are matched on the names in “Set Handicap: Lagutin (-1.5) vs Marques (+1.5)”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Pavel Lagutin and Goncalo Marques in the ITF M25 Idanha-a-Nova 2 Men, originally scheduled for August 23, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Lagutin" if Pavel Lagutin wins by 2 or more sets than Goncalo Marques, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Marques." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ITF results.

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/