Set Handicap: Andrea Bacaloni (-1.5) vs Karol Filar (+1.5)

Q: Set Handicap: Andrea Bacaloni (-1.5) vs Karol Filar (+1.5)

Prediction markets currently price this at 98%. A YES share costs 98.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 2.0% over 5d.

M15 Baku: Karol Filar vs Andrea Bacaloni$672 liquidity$0 volumecloses 5d

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 98.0¢
Implied chance: 98.0%
Return if right: 2.0%
Spread cost: 97%

If you put in $100

You get 102.0 shares at 98.0¢ each.

YES wins: $102.04 back, a profit of $2.04. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $74.95 of that profit. Without it you would make $76.99.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 85.0¢
Implied chance: 85.0%
Return if right: 17.6%
Spread cost: 86%

If you put in $100

You get 117.6 shares at 85.0¢ each.

NO wins: $117.65 back, a profit of $17.65. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $112.24 of that profit. Without it you would make $129.89.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 22, 02:00 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Set Handicap: Andrea Bacaloni (-1.5) vs Karol Filar (+1.5)”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Andrea Bacaloni and Karol Filar in the M15 Baku, originally scheduled for September 22, 2026 at 3:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Andrea Bacaloni" if Andrea Bacaloni wins by 2 or more sets than Karol Filar, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Karol Filar." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Andrea Bacaloni can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Karol Filar." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by October 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ITF results.

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/