Set Handicap: Castagnola (-1.5) vs Fernandez (+1.5)

Q: Set Handicap: Castagnola (-1.5) vs Fernandez (+1.5)

Prediction markets currently price this at 32%. A YES share costs 32.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 212.5% over 7d.

ITF M15 Trier Men: Luca Castagnola vs Bruno Fernandez$1k liquidity$0 volumecloses 7d

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 32.0¢
Implied chance: 32.0%
Return if right: 212.5%
Spread cost: 7%

If you put in $100

You get 312.5 shares at 32.0¢ each.

YES wins: $312.50 back, a profit of $212.50. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $15.37 of that profit. Without it you would make $227.87.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 71.0¢
Implied chance: 71.0%
Return if right: 40.8%
Spread cost: 7%

If you put in $100

You get 140.8 shares at 71.0¢ each.

NO wins: $140.85 back, a profit of $40.85. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.04 of that profit. Without it you would make $43.88.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 12, 01:58 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Set Handicap: Castagnola (-1.5) vs Fernandez (+1.5)”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Castagnola and Bruno Fernandez in the ITF M15 Trier Men, originally scheduled for August 12, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Castagnola" if Luca Castagnola wins by 2 or more sets than Bruno Fernandez, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Fernandez." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ITF results.

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/