Set 1 Winner: Cacao vs Marques

Q: Set 1 Winner: Cacao vs Marques

Prediction markets currently price this at 55%. A YES share costs 55.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 81.8% over 7d.

ITF M25 Idanha-a-Nova 2 Men: Tiago Cacao vs Goncalo Marques$1k liquidity$0 volumecloses 7d

TennisSportsGames

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 55.0¢
Implied chance: 55.0%
Return if right: 81.8%
Spread cost: 8%

If you put in $100

You get 181.8 shares at 55.0¢ each.

YES wins: $181.82 back, a profit of $81.82. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $6.86 of that profit. Without it you would make $88.68.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 49.0¢
Implied chance: 49.0%
Return if right: 104.1%
Spread cost: 8%

If you put in $100

You get 204.1 shares at 49.0¢ each.

NO wins: $204.08 back, a profit of $104.08. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $8.68 of that profit. Without it you would make $112.77.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 19, 02:04 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Figures to face off against Marques for GOP-redistricted Alabama House seatThe Hill · 8d ago

Headlines are matched on the names in “Set 1 Winner: Cacao vs Marques”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Tiago Cacao and Goncalo Marques in the ITF M25 Idanha-a-Nova 2 Men, originally scheduled for August 19, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Cacao” if Tiago Cacao wins the first set. It will resolve to “Marques” if Goncalo Marques wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ITF match statistics.

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/