Set Handicap: Bilardo (-1.5) vs Gschwendtner (+1.5)

Q: Set Handicap: Bilardo (-1.5) vs Gschwendtner (+1.5)

Prediction markets currently price this at 45%. A YES share costs 45.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 122.2% over 7d.

ITF M15 Arad Men: Jacopo Bilardo vs Jeremy Gschwendtner$1k liquidity$0 volumecloses 7d

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 45.0¢
Implied chance: 45.0%
Return if right: 122.2%
Spread cost: 8%

If you put in $100

You get 222.2 shares at 45.0¢ each.

YES wins: $222.22 back, a profit of $122.22. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $10.34 of that profit. Without it you would make $132.56.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 59.0¢
Implied chance: 59.0%
Return if right: 69.5%
Spread cost: 8%

If you put in $100

You get 169.5 shares at 59.0¢ each.

NO wins: $169.49 back, a profit of $69.49. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5.95 of that profit. Without it you would make $75.44.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 18, 05:21 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Jacopo Bilardo and Jeremy Gschwendtner in the ITF M15 Arad Men, originally scheduled for August 18, 2026 at 8:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Bilardo" if Jacopo Bilardo wins by 2 or more sets than Jeremy Gschwendtner, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Gschwendtner." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ITF results.

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/