W50 Leiria: Ariana Arseneault vs Anastasia Gasanova

Q: W50 Leiria: Ariana Arseneault vs Anastasia Gasanova

Prediction markets currently price this at 28%. A YES share costs 28.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 257.1% over 7d.

W50 Leiria: Ariana Arseneault vs Anastasia Gasanova$5k liquidity$0 volumecloses 7d

TennisSportsGames

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 28.0¢
Implied chance: 28.0%
Return if right: 257.1%
Spread cost: 10%

If you put in $100

You get 357.1 shares at 28.0¢ each.

YES wins: $357.14 back, a profit of $257.14. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $27.47 of that profit. Without it you would make $284.62.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 76.0¢
Implied chance: 76.0%
Return if right: 31.6%
Spread cost: 10%

If you put in $100

You get 131.6 shares at 76.0¢ each.

NO wins: $131.58 back, a profit of $31.58. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.56 of that profit. Without it you would make $35.14.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Sep 1, 05:07 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “W50 Leiria: Ariana Arseneault vs Anastasia Gasanova”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Ariana Arseneault and Anastasia Gasanova in the W50 Leiria, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ariana Arseneault' if Ariana Arseneault advances against Anastasia Gasanova. This market will resolve to 'Anastasia Gasanova' if Anastasia Gasanova advances against Ariana Arseneault. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/