Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by August 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 17.0¢
- Implied chance
- 17.0%
- Return if right
- 488.2%
- Spread cost
- 46%
If you put in $100
You get 588.2 shares at 17.0¢ each.
YES wins: $588.24 back, a profit of $488.24. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $411.76 of that profit. Without it you would make $900.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.0¢
- Implied chance
- 97.0%
- Return if right
- 3.1%
- Spread cost
- 72%
If you put in $100
You get 103.1 shares at 97.0¢ each.
NO wins: $103.09 back, a profit of $3.09. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $8.02 of that profit. Without it you would make $11.11.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 01:51 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Israeli forces kill one in Gaza as another body recovered from rubbleAl Jazeera · 9h ago
- Israeli settler attacks rise as West Bank residents lose landAl Jazeera · 2d ago
- Lebanese soldiers injured while Israeli troops intrude on southern townAl Jazeera · 2d ago
- Israeli troops infiltrate Lebanese army-held village and build roadblock, mayor saysFrance 24 · 2d ago
- Medics among six Palestinians injured in Israeli attacks across West BankAl Jazeera · 3d ago
- Iran Seeks to Bar US, Israeli Ships from Hormuz; OpenAI's Doughnut-Like Device | The Pulse 8/7/2026Bloomberg · 3d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by August 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Nabatieh in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Nabatieh will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.