Israeli forces enter Beirut by September 30?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 5.0¢
- Implied chance
- 5.0%
- Return if right
- 1900.0%
- Spread cost
- 48%
If you put in $100
You get 2000.0 shares at 5.0¢ each.
YES wins: $2000.00 back, a profit of $1900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1773.58 of that profit. Without it you would make $3673.58.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.7¢
- Implied chance
- 99.7%
- Return if right
- 0.3%
- Spread cost
- 89%
If you put in $100
You get 100.3 shares at 99.7¢ each.
NO wins: $100.30 back, a profit of $0.30. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.42 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.72.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 27, 04:13 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Besieged Qusra residents fear permanent Israeli presenceAl Jazeera · 2h ago
- Israeli strike kills ‘newlywed’ woman in south Lebanon, wounds othersAl Jazeera · 3h ago
- Burnham’s expected UK ban on Israeli settlement goods draws broad supportAl Jazeera · 3h ago
- Board of Peace's Gaza envoy criticises Israeli strikes and Hamas actionsBBC News · 4h ago
- Israeli settlers targeting Palestinian factories to force workers off landAl Jazeera · 5h ago
- UNRWA chief condemns Israeli seizure of East Jerusalem training centreAl Jazeera · 23h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Israeli forces enter Beirut by September 30?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.