Israeli election results in a hung parliament?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 33.0¢
- Implied chance
- 33.0%
- Return if right
- 203.0%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 303.0 shares at 33.0¢ each.
YES wins: $303.03 back, a profit of $203.03. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $9.47 of that profit. Without it you would make $212.50.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 69.0¢
- Implied chance
- 69.0%
- Return if right
- 44.9%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 144.9 shares at 69.0¢ each.
NO wins: $144.93 back, a profit of $44.93. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.13 of that profit. Without it you would make $47.06.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Israeli military moves as settlers besiege 3 West Bank homesDeutsche Welle · 3h ago
- Anthropic in talks to acquire Israeli AI startup Decart for $6 billionYahoo Finance · 7h ago
- US diplomat calls Israeli settler siege of West Bank homes ‘act of terror’Al Jazeera · 10h ago
- Palestinians told to leave homes in village where Israeli settlers besieged housesBBC News · 11h ago
- Israeli strikes in south Lebanon a ‘violation of international law’: PMAl Jazeera · 12h ago
- Three Palestinian families besieged in their homes by Israeli settlersAl Jazeera · 14h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Israeli election results in a hung parliament?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset. An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government. If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called. If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.