Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 12.0¢
- Implied chance
- 12.0%
- Return if right
- 733.3%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 833.3 shares at 12.0¢ each.
YES wins: $833.33 back, a profit of $733.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $36.23 of that profit. Without it you would make $769.57.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 89.0¢
- Implied chance
- 89.0%
- Return if right
- 12.4%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 112.4 shares at 89.0¢ each.
NO wins: $112.36 back, a profit of $12.36. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.63 of that profit. Without it you would make $12.99.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Israel vindicated by Gaza nutrition data after ‘blood libel’ starvation claims, UN envoy saysFox News · 10m ago
- Donald Trump took secret flight out of Turkey over Iran threat, the Washington Post reportsFrance 24 · 55m ago
- Turkey approves pardon-like bill for thousands of PKK militantsFrance 24 · 2h ago
- Trump secretly swapped planes in Turkey over Iran threat, report saysFrance 24 · 2h ago
- As conflict in the Middle East intensifies, India’s relationship with Israel deepensThe Guardian · 3h ago
- Middle East: Trump took secret flight out of Turkey over Iran threatDeutsche Welle · 4h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.