Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 2.5¢
- Implied chance
- 2.5%
- Return if right
- 3900.0%
- Spread cost
- 26%
If you put in $100
You get 4000.0 shares at 2.5¢ each.
YES wins: $4000.00 back, a profit of $3900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1405.41 of that profit. Without it you would make $5305.41.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 98.8¢
- Implied chance
- 98.8%
- Return if right
- 1.2%
- Spread cost
- 36%
If you put in $100
You get 101.2 shares at 98.8¢ each.
NO wins: $101.21 back, a profit of $1.21. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.88.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Middle East: Israel strikes southern Lebanon, accuses Hezbollah of 'blatant' ceasefire violationDeutsche Welle · 5d ago
- Israel Strikes Lebanon After Accusing Hezbollah of Cease-Fire ViolationThe New York Times · 5d ago
- Lebanon and Israel still split over disarming Hezbollah at Rome talksAl Jazeera · 6d ago
- Middle East: Hezbollah condemns latest Israel-Lebanon talksDeutsche Welle · 6d ago
- Hezbollah rejects fresh round of talks between Lebanon and IsraelFrance 24 · 6d ago
- Israel Says It Killed Several Hezbollah Members on Key Lebanon HilltopThe New York Times · 9d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of Israel and Hezbollah who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Hezbollah relations on behalf of their governments/leadership structures. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah leadership, and a consensus of credible reporting.