Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 50.0¢
- Implied chance
- 50.0%
- Return if right
- 100.0%
- Spread cost
- 10%
If you put in $100
You get 200.0 shares at 50.0¢ each.
YES wins: $200.00 back, a profit of $100.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $10.53 of that profit. Without it you would make $110.53.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 55.0¢
- Implied chance
- 55.0%
- Return if right
- 81.8%
- Spread cost
- 10%
If you put in $100
You get 181.8 shares at 55.0¢ each.
NO wins: $181.82 back, a profit of $81.82. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $8.66 of that profit. Without it you would make $90.48.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Israel confirms death of Palestinian detainee, nearly two years lateAl Jazeera · 6h ago
- Iran war live: US ‘semi-negotiating’ with Tehran; Israel rejects Gaza planAl Jazeera · 9h ago
- Netanyahu says Israel rejects Trump’s Gaza peace planDeutsche Welle · 10h ago
- Hasan Piker stands by 'intentionally provocative' claims that Hamas is 'a thousand times better' than IsraelFox News · 11h ago
- Murphy says Israel ‘not aligned’ with U.S. national security objectivesThe Hill · 12h ago
- Iran War Timeline: Key Moments and Attacks In U.S. and Israel’s CampaignThe New York Times · 13h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza. This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm. An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.