Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 26.0¢
- Implied chance
- 26.0%
- Return if right
- 284.6%
- Spread cost
- 20%
If you put in $100
You get 384.6 shares at 26.0¢ each.
YES wins: $384.62 back, a profit of $284.62. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $69.93 of that profit. Without it you would make $354.55.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 82.0¢
- Implied chance
- 82.0%
- Return if right
- 22.0%
- Spread cost
- 22%
If you put in $100
You get 122.0 shares at 82.0¢ each.
NO wins: $121.95 back, a profit of $21.95. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $6.25 of that profit. Without it you would make $28.21.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Israel deliberately starting wildfires in southern Lebanon, firefighters sayThe Guardian · 45m ago
- El-Sayed's Michigan primary win may put 2028 spotlight on Israel and Arab voicesABC News · 8h ago
- Israel demolishes home of Palestinian killed during settler attackAl Jazeera · 8h ago
- Venezuela and Israel restore consular ties as relations warmAl Jazeera · 10h ago
- Pro-Israel organizations condemn DSA co-chair for saying October 7 attacks were 'inevitable'Fox News · 12h ago
- Israel vindicated by Gaza nutrition data after ‘blood libel’ starvation claims, UN envoy saysFox News · 19h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.