Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 32.0¢
- Implied chance
- 32.0%
- Return if right
- 212.5%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 312.5 shares at 32.0¢ each.
YES wins: $312.50 back, a profit of $212.50. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.96 of that profit. Without it you would make $217.46.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 69.0¢
- Implied chance
- 69.0%
- Return if right
- 44.9%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 144.9 shares at 69.0¢ each.
NO wins: $144.93 back, a profit of $44.93. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.06 of that profit. Without it you would make $45.99.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 7, 05:21 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- What is white phosphorus, and why is Israel using it in Lebanon?Al Jazeera · 8d ago
- Israel’s destruction leaves Lebanon’s border villages in ruinsAl Jazeera · 14d ago
- Israel targets paramedics in southern LebanonAl Jazeera · 18d ago
- How Israel’s destruction of south Lebanon is making displacement permanentAl Jazeera · 24d ago
- Israel bombs southern Lebanon as talks postponedAl Jazeera · 25d ago
- Israel-Lebanon talks postponed as explosions rock southern LebanonAl Jazeera · 25d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.