Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 12.0¢
- Implied chance
- 12.0%
- Return if right
- 733.3%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 833.3 shares at 12.0¢ each.
YES wins: $833.33 back, a profit of $733.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $36.23 of that profit. Without it you would make $769.57.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 89.0¢
- Implied chance
- 89.0%
- Return if right
- 12.4%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 112.4 shares at 89.0¢ each.
NO wins: $112.36 back, a profit of $12.36. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.63 of that profit. Without it you would make $12.99.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 08:18 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Anguished locals watch as Israel demolishes homes in southern LebanonAl Jazeera · 11h ago
- Lebanon points to ‘positive progress’ on borders, prisoners in Israel talksAl Jazeera · 3d ago
- ‘No red line’: South Lebanon residents outraged as Israel resumes strikesAl Jazeera · 4d ago
- Israel strikes south Lebanon after two soldiers killed by explosionBBC News · 5d ago
- Israel strikes southern Lebanon killing one and injuring 11The Guardian · 5d ago
- Israel resumes military strikes on southern Lebanon as Rome hosts peace talksFrance 24 · 5d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.