Israel election: will Likud lose seats?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 92.0¢
- Implied chance
- 92.0%
- Return if right
- 8.7%
- Spread cost
- 17%
If you put in $100
You get 108.7 shares at 92.0¢ each.
YES wins: $108.70 back, a profit of $8.70. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.80 of that profit. Without it you would make $10.50.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 11.0¢
- Implied chance
- 11.0%
- Return if right
- 809.1%
- Spread cost
- 15%
If you put in $100
You get 909.1 shares at 11.0¢ each.
NO wins: $909.09 back, a profit of $809.09. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $143.54 of that profit. Without it you would make $952.63.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- ‘We have no one’: Palestinians react to Israel’s rejection of Gaza planAl Jazeera · 7h ago
- Anas al-Sharif: One year on from Israel’s killing of Al Jazeera reporterAl Jazeera · 7h ago
- Anguished locals watch as Israel demolishes homes in southern LebanonAl Jazeera · 14h ago
- Israel confirms death of Palestinian detainee, nearly two years lateAl Jazeera · 20h ago
- Netanyahu says Israel rejects Trump’s Gaza peace planDeutsche Welle · 1d ago
- Hasan Piker stands by 'intentionally provocative' claims that Hamas is 'a thousand times better' than IsraelFox News · 1d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Israel election: will Likud lose seats?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).