Israel closes its airspace by August 15?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.1¢
- Implied chance
- 3.1%
- Return if right
- 3125.8%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 3225.8 shares at 3.1¢ each.
YES wins: $3225.81 back, a profit of $3125.81. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $107.53 of that profit. Without it you would make $3233.33.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.1¢
- Implied chance
- 97.1%
- Return if right
- 3.0%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 103.0 shares at 97.1¢ each.
NO wins: $102.99 back, a profit of $2.99. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.11 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.09.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Israel closes its airspace by August 15?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.