Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 8.0¢
- Implied chance
- 8.0%
- Return if right
- 1150.0%
- Spread cost
- 13%
If you put in $100
You get 1250.0 shares at 8.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1250.00 back, a profit of $1150.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $178.57 of that profit. Without it you would make $1328.57.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 94.0¢
- Implied chance
- 94.0%
- Return if right
- 6.4%
- Spread cost
- 15%
If you put in $100
You get 106.4 shares at 94.0¢ each.
NO wins: $106.38 back, a profit of $6.38. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.14 of that profit. Without it you would make $7.53.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Anguished locals watch as Israel demolishes homes in southern LebanonAl Jazeera · 9h ago
- Lebanon points to ‘positive progress’ on borders, prisoners in Israel talksAl Jazeera · 3d ago
- ‘No red line’: South Lebanon residents outraged as Israel resumes strikesAl Jazeera · 4d ago
- Israel strikes south Lebanon after two soldiers killed by explosionBBC News · 5d ago
- Israel strikes southern Lebanon killing one and injuring 11The Guardian · 5d ago
- Israel resumes military strikes on southern Lebanon as Rome hosts peace talksFrance 24 · 5d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.