Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 11.0¢
- Implied chance
- 11.0%
- Return if right
- 809.1%
- Spread cost
- 25%
If you put in $100
You get 909.1 shares at 11.0¢ each.
YES wins: $909.09 back, a profit of $809.09. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $267.38 of that profit. Without it you would make $1076.47.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 94.0¢
- Implied chance
- 94.0%
- Return if right
- 6.4%
- Spread cost
- 31%
If you put in $100
You get 106.4 shares at 94.0¢ each.
NO wins: $106.38 back, a profit of $6.38. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.91 of that profit. Without it you would make $9.29.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Israel moves to ban main Palestinian-led lists from electionAl Jazeera · 58m ago
- Netanyahu defends Israel in U.N. speech after several diplomats walk outCBS News · 1h ago
- Israel’s policies threaten ‘very existence’ of Palestinians, Abbas tells UNAl Jazeera · 2h ago
- Netanyahu calls Israel’s war in Gaza ‘opposite of genocide’ in UN speechThe Guardian · 3h ago
- UNGA: Abbas blasts US and Israel, calls for Palestinian self-determinationDeutsche Welle · 5h ago
- Israel's Netanyahu addresses U.N. as many leaders walk outCBS News · 6h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 202…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.