Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 20.0¢
- Implied chance
- 20.0%
- Return if right
- 400.0%
- Spread cost
- 12%
If you put in $100
You get 500.0 shares at 20.0¢ each.
YES wins: $500.00 back, a profit of $400.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $55.56 of that profit. Without it you would make $455.56.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 84.0¢
- Implied chance
- 84.0%
- Return if right
- 19.0%
- Spread cost
- 13%
If you put in $100
You get 119.0 shares at 84.0¢ each.
NO wins: $119.05 back, a profit of $19.05. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.90 of that profit. Without it you would make $21.95.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 11, 07:56 AM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Trump claims control of Strait of Hormuz as stalemate deepensCBS News · 38m ago
- Aluminum Hits Seven-Week High as Hormuz Impasse Threatens SupplyBloomberg · 3h ago
- Trump demands compensation from Iran as talks on Strait of Hormuz continueAl Jazeera · 5h ago
- Iran’s steep demands for US over Strait of Hormuz threaten to derail reopeningThe Hill · 7h ago
- Iran war live: Trump claims Hormuz Strait open, seeks Iranian compensationAl Jazeera · 8h ago
- Breaking down Iran's new set of demands over the Strait of HormuzCBS News · 16h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.