Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 15.0¢
- Implied chance
- 15.0%
- Return if right
- 566.7%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 666.7 shares at 15.0¢ each.
YES wins: $666.67 back, a profit of $566.67. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $22.99 of that profit. Without it you would make $589.66.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 86.0¢
- Implied chance
- 86.0%
- Return if right
- 16.3%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 116.3 shares at 86.0¢ each.
NO wins: $116.28 back, a profit of $16.28. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.68 of that profit. Without it you would make $16.96.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 21, 10:57 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.